Could Arizona challenge the Giants in the NL West?

By Morris Phillips

July 13, 2011
 
 



Could the Giants get a challenge from the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West?

Really, it’s hard to say if the Diamondbacks are contenders, but it appears unlikely that heat within the division will come from anywhere else. While the Rockies and Dodgers have had disappointing seasons to date, the Diamondbacks have been surging ever since the beginning of May. With a 5 ½ game gap between second place Arizona and third place Colorado, it’s appears the bottom three of the Dodgers, Padres and Rockies will have their hands full just trying to catch the D’Backs, let alone the Giants.

And from handicapping standpoint, the Giants (52-40) appear to be the current division leader most likely to maintain their position in the second half. The home team has the World Series in their back pocket, the greatest resources to sure up any weaknesses, a three game lead and a favorable schedule—at least until the final two weeks of the season. Arizona (49-43) has… youth and enthusiasm, but they could see their promise eroded by the lack of performance of their fourth and fifth starters, an area--not surprisingly—that’s become a real strength for the Giants.

Another indicator as to where these two teams are headed can be found in what their objectives are heading into the trade deadline on July 31. Brian Sabean appears to have the green light to pursue the most promising sluggers available, while Arizona GM Kevin Towers seems intent on dealing for a capable setup man or two, with an upgrade in their rotation probably too rich for the D’Backs’ blood.

Simply, the Giants see the Phillies and Braves as their competition for a league pennant, while the Diamondbacks are trying to play as well in August as they did in May. Can Arizona rattle the applecart?

If so, the D’Backs needs their trio of sluggers, Justin Upton, Chris Young and Kelly Johnson, to keep hitting. And not just for power, but for average. The trio has combined for 47 home runs, but they’ve combined to strike out 252 times and Johnson is hitting just .218. All three have shown tremendous growth and are on pace to surpass their career-best numbers, but they’ve got to continue to produce.

Given that Arizona continues to hit, they’re also going to need fourth and fifth starters Josh Collmenter and Zach Duke to reverse their recent trends. Collmenter has lost four straight decisions and the D’Backs last won a game he started on June 9. Duke’s lost two of his last three starts and he can’t seem to get his ERA south of its current 5.47.

Two stretches loom as keys in the race for the NL West. Arizona starts a 10-game home stand on Friday against the Dodgers, Brewers and Rockies. If that goes well, then the Giants will have their opportunity to surge in August with 19 home games. Should a race come down to the final month, the Giants could be at a disadvantage with 10 of their final 13 games on the road, while the D’Backs finish with nine in a row at Chase Field.

The teams meet head-to-head in San Francisco on August 1-3 and September 2-4 for six games and then in Phoenix on September 23-25. Thus far, Giants’ pitching has trumped D’Backs slugging with San Francisco winning seven of the first nine meetings, including a three-game sweep at Pac Bell in May.

 

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